DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/22 11:10
Wheat Mixed at Midday; Corn, Soybeans Lower
Corn and soybeans score fresh lows, with wheat mixed.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 110 points higher. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 40 points higher.
Energies are firmer with crude up .95. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious
metals are lower with gold down 6.80.
Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower with trade score fresh lows with fund
selling building over the course of the session. The short-fund position is
pushing towards 340,000 short or more with the fresh action this morning. The
forecast should allow for better progress in much of the Belt this week with
the north remaining slowest, and a potentially wetter start to May. Ethanol
blender margins will see another boost with the surge in the energy complex to
start the week with ethanol futures remain flat. South American harvest should
continue to move along toward completion. The weekly crop progress report
pegged planting at 6% vs. 12% on average. On the May nearby chart support is
the fresh low at $3.50 1/4, with the 10-day at $3.59 nearby resistance, and
then the 20-day at $3.62.
Soybean trade is 12 to 14 cents lower with bigger selling building over the
course of the day session with the fall lows coming out. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00
lower, and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. Crush margins have faded but remain
solidly positive with meal still holding the $300 level at midday/ South
American currencies remain cheap as soybean harvest winds down with the real
edging slightly higher but still at the lower end of the range. The daily
export wire has been quiet in recent days. The first crop progress report
scored 1% planted vs. 2% on average. On the May chart, support is the fresh low
at $8.64, with resistance clustered in the $8.89 to $8.91 range.
Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 3 cents higher with light short covering at
midday after initial selling pressure again overnight and the weak row cop
trade. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched closely for further rains,
with a mixed start to the year overall and no major concerns currently and
better rains for France and Romania on tap. The U.S. high Plains look wet for
Oklahoma and Texas, with Kansas seeing a generally drier tint, and the north
more open for progress in the next few days. The weekly crop conditions were 2
percentage points better at 62% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor and
heading at 9% vs. 18% on average, while spring wheat was 5% planted vs. 22% on
average. On the May Kansas City chart, support the fresh lows at $4.08, with
the lower Bollinger Band at $4.11, and resistance the 10-day at $4.23.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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